![\"\"](\"http:\/\/khoo.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/figure_at_finish_line_13179-3.png\")
<\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\nDespite a late start in our response to the pandemic,\nAustralia\u2019s covid-19 graph of new cases looks like it is definitely flattening.\nMost days over the last few weeks, the number of new cases is about 20-30\nnationally at the most. Even in the most popular state, new cases are often in\nsingle digit numbers. Does that mean that we have finally \u201celiminated\u201d the\nvirus? Is the pandemic finally over now?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
As of 3rd<\/sup> May 2020, we have a total of 6799 cases\nof Covid-19. If we were to dissect the numbers, we find that 64% of cases were\nacquired overseas (including cruise ship travellers). When we closed our borders\nand (finally) got control of the arrival of cruise ships, overseas acquired\ncases fell dramatically. Of the 36% of locally acquired cases, only 10% came\nfrom unknown sources. This amounts to about 680 nationally (as of March 27)\nwhich is really a small manageable number. <\/p>\n\n\n\n 85% of the cases have recovered leaving 926 cases still\nactive. Thus, we have small numbers of cases whose origin is still unknown but\nthe numbers are small enough that we are able to track and manage the pandemic\nefficiently. Is that the reason why our curve is flattening and in due course,\nwe will be on track in eliminating the virus from the community?<\/p>\n\n\n\n One thing that is not discussed much out there is the issue\nof the asymptomatic carrier. We all know that some patients have more severe\nsymptoms than others. Similarly, some patients only get fairly mild symptoms,\nnothing more than just a sniffle or perhaps just a scratchy throat. <\/p>\n\n\n\n It\u2019s only naturally, some will have symptoms so mild that\nthey are asymptomatic<\/em>. What proportion of patients with Covid-19 are\nasymptomatic? Unfortunately, we don\u2019t know. The pandemic have unfolded so\nrapidly that there just isn\u2019t enough time to conduct any scientific studies to\nascertain the proportion of asymptomatic carriers. Preliminary case reports (not\nquite formal scientific studies) estimated the proportion to range between\n5-60% (read more here). That\u2019s a pretty large range to be confident about the\naccuracy of the figures. So, it could be any number. We also don\u2019t know how\nlong the asymptomatic carrier are contagious for. The symptomatic Covid-19\npatient is generally contagious for about 2 weeks but the carriers could be\ncontagious for longer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n So far, in Australia, we have only been testing those with\nsymptoms. Our case numbers is only reflective of who we test. The more we test,\nthe more we may find but we won\u2019t know the proportion of those who are\nasymptomatic if we do not test them. The state and federal governments are now\nencouraging testing anyone with or without symptoms. Perhaps, only then would\nwe have the answer to that question.<\/p>\n\n\n\n So, is our curve flattening because we are close to\neliminating the virus from the general community? Since we only have 20-30 new\ncases a day in Australia, this is very encouraging, isn\u2019t it? What if the\nreason why we are flattening the curve because we have kept the asymptomatic\ncarriers at home with social distancing restrictions. If you are asymptomatic\nbut you are mainly at home, you may not have the opportunity to spread the\nvirus. <\/p>\n\n\n\n How will we know which is the reason for the flattening of\nthe curve? Well, when we relax the social distancing restrictions but opening\nup the economy, we may find out, perhaps, the hard way. That\u2019s why it\u2019s crucial\nthat the government relaxes the restriction a bit at a time to know, which bit\nis the cause of a spike if there is one.<\/p>\n\n\n\n It is probably also a good idea to install the CovidSafe app on your phone just in case, we are not on the trajectory to eliminating the virus yet. I mean, how can you tell if someone next to you is not one of those asymptomatic carrier<\/em><\/strong>?<\/p>\n\n\n\n Reference:<\/p>\n\n\n\n https:\/\/www.abc.net.au\/news\/2020-03-17\/coronavirus-cases-data-reveals-how-covid-19-spreads-in-australia\/12060704?nw=0<\/a>\n(accessed 3\/5\/2020)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" 3rd May 2020 Despite a late start in our response to the pandemic, Australia\u2019s covid-19 graph of new cases looks like it is definitely flattening. Most days over the last few weeks, the number of new cases is about 20-30 nationally at the most. Even in the most popular state,Continue Reading<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":1735,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[17,13],"tags":[],"class_list":["entry","author-chee1404","post-1734","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-covid-19","category-general"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/khoo.com.au\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1734","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/khoo.com.au\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/khoo.com.au\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/khoo.com.au\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/khoo.com.au\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1734"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/khoo.com.au\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1734\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1737,"href":"https:\/\/khoo.com.au\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1734\/revisions\/1737"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/khoo.com.au\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1735"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/khoo.com.au\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1734"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/khoo.com.au\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1734"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/khoo.com.au\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1734"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}